Monday August 15, 2005 10:30 AM EDT
The current forecast wind speed is higher than the National Hurricane
Center forecast and the present projected course is more
northerly. Irene is approaching the midlatude westerlies
which will soon be imparting shear and cooler water. The result
of these effects will be to limit further strengthening and cause Irene
to dissipate within the next five days.
Sunday August 14, 2005 6:30 PM EDT
At 6:30 the National Hurricane
Center upgraded Tropical Storm Irene to
Hurricane
Irene. Irene has now started its turn to the north
east. Winds are now approaching hurricane
strength, but are
forecast to begin and then continue to drop beginning on Monday.
The forecast track should take Irene well out to sea.
Saturday August 13 2005 5 PM EDT The National Hurricane
Center has
again downgraded Irene's projected wind speed and is flatly stating
that Irene posses no threat to land.
Saturday August 13, 2005 11 AM AST
The National Hurricane
Center is down grading its long term projection
of Irene's projected wind speed.
Irene's projected course remains unchanged.
Saturday August 13, 2005 5 AM EDT
No significant changes in the Forecast in the 5 AM update
Saturday August 13, 2005 Midnight EDT
The National Hurricane
Center (NHC) forecasts that Irene could become a
hurricane
Saturday. Current satellite
imagery
shows Irene becoming better organized. Our feeling is that the
NHC median wind speed forecast, that Irene will not reach category 2
status, is probably low.
Friday August 12, 2005, 1:30 EDT
NOAA has a better record for predicting the path of hurricanes than for
predicting their strength. Therefore, when the forecast predicts
a category one Hurricane
Irene turning, early next week and making a
run off the eastern coast of the United States, the part of the
forecast that will most likely be correct is the path. Yet, when NOAA
predicts that a storm will turn, some days in advance of the turn, that
is when its path predictions are most inaccurate
Prior to this point in time Irene has had some factors operating
against its development into a strong hurricane.
In the days
ahead we will see Irene stregnthen in the absence of these factors.
NOAA's median prediction is that in 72 hours, about 175 miles east off
the coast of North Carolina a category 1 hurricane
with winds around 90
miles per hour will be taking a path directly north towards New England
before turning out to sea.
When we look at the extreme ranges of NOAA's predictions, we see that
there is a
5% probability that a catagory 4-5 hurricane
coud hit anywhere on the
US Coast north of South
Carolina to a tropical storm that could die at sea. So, if you
are anywhere in the zone of probability it may be a good idea to keep
an eye on Hurricane
Irene.
Please bookmark this site for future storm updates and damage reports.
NOAA isn't the only National Weather Service agency that generates
probability predictions about the path and effects of hurricanes.
The maps below are created by different agencies that use their
own methods for creating predictions. Because the National
Hurricane
Center (NHC) issues warnings that result in evacuations it
tends be liberal in issuing predictions that result in evacuations;
it's a matter of life and death. Predicting the weather is both a
science and an art. Predicting the strength and course of a hurricane
has consequences, as when an evacuation order is issued the economic
costs can exceed a million dollar per mile of coast evacuated.
Thus hurricane
Floyd cost around a billion dollars in economic losses
because before it hit land evacutation orders were issued for over a
thousand miles of coast, the majority of which saw no damage from
Floyd. The NHC is, in some respects, liberal in issues its
warnings. The agencies who issue the warnings, that you will find
below, tend to not to be so liberal. Current Weather
Watches
Watch, Warning and Advisory
Display
Today's National
ForecastCurrent
Weather
National Weather Warnings
Day 1 Forecast
Precipitation
Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
