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The Disaster Center's Tropical Storm - Hurricane Irene Page
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Hurricane Irene
Click here to view high-resolution version (5.6MB)  Image Acquired:  August 15, 2005
Monday August 15, 2005 10:30 AM EDT
The current forecast wind speed is higher than the National Hurricane Center forecast and the present projected course is more northerly.   Irene is approaching the midlatude westerlies which will soon be imparting shear and cooler water.  The result of these effects will be to limit further strengthening and cause Irene to dissipate within the next five days.
Sunday August 14, 2005 6:30 PM EDT
At 6:30 the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Storm Irene to Hurricane Irene.  Irene has now started its turn to the north east.  Winds are now approaching hurricane strength, but are forecast to begin and then continue to drop beginning on Monday.  The forecast track should take Irene well out to sea.
Saturday August 13 2005 5 PM EDT The National Hurricane Center has again downgraded Irene's projected wind speed and is flatly stating that Irene posses no threat to land.
Saturday August 13, 2005 11 AM AST
The National Hurricane Center is down grading its long term projection of Irene's projected wind speed.  Irene's projected course remains unchanged.
Saturday August 13, 2005 5 AM EDT
No significant changes in the Forecast in the 5 AM update
Saturday August 13, 2005 Midnight EDT
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts that Irene could become a hurricane Saturday.  Current satellite imagery  shows Irene becoming better organized.  Our feeling is that the NHC median wind speed forecast, that Irene will not reach category 2 status, is probably low. 
Watch, Warning and Advisory Display

Friday August 12, 2005, 1:30 EDT
NOAA has a better record for predicting the path of hurricanes than for predicting their strength.  Therefore, when the forecast predicts a category one Hurricane Irene turning, early next week and making a run off the eastern coast of the United States, the part of the forecast that will most likely be correct is the path. Yet, when NOAA predicts that a storm will turn, some days in advance of the turn, that is when its path predictions are most inaccurate 

Prior to this point in time Irene has had some factors operating against its development into a strong hurricane.  In the days ahead we will see Irene stregnthen in the absence of these factors. NOAA's median prediction is that in 72 hours, about 175 miles east off the coast of North Carolina a category 1 hurricane with winds around 90 miles per hour will be taking a path directly north towards New England before turning out to sea.

When we look at the extreme ranges of NOAA's predictions, we see that there is a 5% probability that a catagory 4-5 hurricane coud hit anywhere on the US Coast north of South Carolina to a tropical storm that could die at sea.  So, if you are anywhere in the zone of probability it may be a good idea to keep an eye on Hurricane Irene.
Please bookmark this site for future storm updates and damage reports.

NOAA isn't the only National Weather Service agency that generates probability predictions about the path and effects of hurricanes.  The maps below are created by different agencies that  use their own methods for creating predictions.  Because the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues warnings that result in evacuations it tends be liberal in issuing predictions that result in evacuations; it's a matter of life and death. Predicting the weather is both a science and an art. Predicting the strength and course of a hurricane has consequences, as when an evacuation order is issued the economic costs can exceed a million dollar per mile of coast evacuated.  Thus hurricane Floyd cost around a billion dollars in economic losses because before it hit land evacutation orders were issued for over a thousand miles of coast, the majority of which saw no damage from Floyd.  The NHC is, in some respects, liberal in issues its warnings.  The agencies who issue the warnings, that you will find below, tend to not to be so liberal. 
Current Weather Watches                                 Watch, Warning and Advisory Display
Current Weather Watches                           Watch, Warning and Advisory Display

Today's National
Forecast
                            Current  Weather              National Weather Warnings

National forecast       Current Weather          National Weather Warnings
Day 1 Forecast  Precipitation                                Day 2 Forecast Precipitation

        Day 1 Forecast Precipitation                 Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
 
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Why Talk About Hurricanes?
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National Hurricane Center 
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Map Hurricane Risk in United States 
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NASA - Hurricane 2005: A Hurricane Resource Site
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Hurricane Irene
Click here to view high-resolution version (2.46MB)  Image Acquired:  August 14, 2005 nowCOAST: GIS Mapping Portal to Real-Time Environmental Observations and NOAA Forecasts
National Data Buoy Center
NOS WATER LEVEL OBSERVATION NETWORK Flood Predictions
NWS River Forecast Information
NWS Flash Flood Guidance
NWS Significant River Flood Outlook USGS Current Water Resources Conditions
Satellites
NOAA GOES Satellite Imagery for Tropical Sectors
NOAA Multi-Dimensional Imagery from Polar Orbiting and Geostationary Satellites
Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Tropical Cyclone Information
NASA MODIS Rapid Response System
Local Radar
NWS National Doppler Radar Sites
Track Analysis/Best Track
National Hurricane Center/Tropical Predictions Center Archive of Past Hurricane Seasons
Historical Hurricane Tracks
Shoreline Change
United States Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program Internet Map Server
USGS Hurricane and Extreme Storm Impact Studies
USGS Mapping Coastal Change Hazards
High-Resolution Topography
USGS Hurricane and Extreme Storm Impact Studies
NOAA Coastal Services Center Topographic Data
Environmental Affects
NOAA Office of Response and Restoration
Health Affects
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports
For the CDC index on hurricane information (including fact sheets in English and other languages), please see: 
CDC"s Hurricane Index
For CDC information specific to healthcare professionals
Precipitation and Flood Analysis
National Weather Service Precipitation Analysis
National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers
Damage Assessment and Post-Storm Impact Data
National Hurricane Center/Tropical Predictions Center Tropical Cyclone Reports
NWS Service Assessments
NWS Storm Prediction Center Storm Reports
Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio Network
DURING A HURRICANE WATCH
(A Hurricane Watch is issued when there is a threat of hurricane conditions within 24-36 hours.)
1. Listen to a battery-operated radio or television for hurricane progress reports.
2. Check emergency supply kit.
3. Fuel car.
4. Bring in outdoor objects such as lawn furniture, toys, and garden tools and anchor objects that cannot be brought inside.
5. Secure buildings by closing and boarding up windows. Remove outside antennas.
6. Turn refrigerator and freezer to coldest settings. Open only when absolutely necessary and close quickly.
7. Store drinking water in clean bathtubs, jugs, bottles, and cooking utensils.
8. Store valuables and personal papers in a waterproof container on the highest level of your home. 9. Review evacuation plan.
10. Moor boat securely or move it to a designated safe place. Use rope or chain to secure boat to trailer. Use tiedowns to anchor trailer to the ground or house.
Source: floridadisaster.org/      Florida's Division of Emergency Management