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Short MPG Movie of Ophelia updated continuouslyThe image at left is linked to a short MPG showing the latest satalite images of Ophelia.
September 17, 2005 - 8 AM EDT -   Ophelia, moving to the north northeast near 8 mlies per hour, is now located at 40.7 north 69.0 west or about 70 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts. T
September 17, 2005 - 11 AM EDT -   Ophelia, moving to the north northeast near 8 mlies per hour, is now located at 40.7 north 69.7 west or about 95 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts. The NHC is indicating that computer simulations are now in agreement regarding the the projected path of Ophelia, which indicate that Ophelia will take a path south of Cape Code. The outer islands should expect to be subject to sustained wind speeds of 50 mph, with higher gusts, and additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible.  Ophelia's maximum sustained winds are now at 60 mph. No weakening is forecast for the next 24 hrs. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 175 miles from the center.   Storm surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels are possible.
September 16, 2005 - 11 PM EDT -   Ophelia, moving to the north northeast near 8 mlies per hour, is now located at 37.8 north 72.2 west or about 265 miles south southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts. The NHC is indicating that computer simulations are now in agreement regarding the the projected path of Ophelia, which indicate that Ophelia will take a path south of Cape Code. The outer islands should expect to be subject to sustained wind speeds of 50 mph, with higher gusts, and additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in the coming three days.  Ophelia's maximum sustained winds are now at 65 mph. No weakening is forecast for the next 24 hrs. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 105 miles from the center.   Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 3 to 4 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
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DURING A HURRICANE WATCH
(A Hurricane Watch is issued when there is a threat of hurricane conditions within 24-36 hours.)
1. Listen to a battery-operated radio or television for hurricane progress reports.
2. Check emergency supply kit.
3. Fuel car.
4. Bring in outdoor objects such as lawn furniture, toys, and garden tools and anchor objects that cannot be brought inside.
5. Secure buildings by closing and boarding up windows. Remove outside antennas.
6. Turn refrigerator and freezer to coldest settings. Open only when absolutely necessary and close quickly.
7. Store drinking water in clean bathtubs, jugs, bottles, and cooking utensils.
8. Store valuables and personal papers in a waterproof container on the highest level of your home. 9. Review evacuation plan.
10. Moor boat securely or move it to a designated safe place. Use rope or chain to secure boat to trailer. Use tiedowns to anchor trailer to the ground or house.
Source: floridadisaster.org/      Florida's Division of Emergency Management
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Ophelia Dairy
September 16, 2005 - 5 PM EDT -   Ophelia, moving to the north northeast near 8 mlies per hour, is now located at 36.8 north 73.2 west or about 170 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and about 355 miles south shothwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts. The NHC is indicating that computer simulations are now in agreement regarding the the projected path of Ophelia, which indicate that Ophelia will take a path south of Cape Code. The outer islands should expect to be subject to sustained wind speeds of 50 mph, with higher gusts, and 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in the coming three days.  Ophelia's maximum sustained winds are now at 55 mph. No weakening is forecast for the next 24 hrs. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 105 miles from the center.   Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 3 to 4 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
September 16, 2005 - 2 PM EDT -   Ophelia, moving to the north northeast near 8 mlies per hour, is now located at 36.1 north 74.1 west or about 105 miles east northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and about 415 miles south shothwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Ophelia's maximum sustained winds are now at 60 mph. No weakening is forecast for the next 24 hrs.
September 16, 2005 - 11 AM EDT -   Ophelia, moving to the north northeast near 8 mlies per hour, is now located at 35.7 north 74.4 west or about 70 miles east northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  The NHC is indicating that computer simulations are now in agreement regarding the the projected path of Ophelia, which indicate that Ophelia will take a path south of Cape Code. The outer islands should expect to be subject to sustained wind speeds of 50 mph, with higheer gusts, and as much as 3 inches of rainfall in the coming three days.  Ophelia's maximum sustained winds are now at 60 mph. No weakening is forecast for the next 24 hrs. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 105 miles from the center.  Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of less than 1 inch over extreme eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 3 to 4 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
September 16, 2005 - 8 AM EDT -   Ophelia, still stagnant and weakening, is now located at 35.4 north 74.5 west or about 65 miles east northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  The NHC is indicating that computer simulations are now in agreement regarding the the projected path of Ophelia, which indicate that Ophelia will take a path south of Cape Code. The outer islands should expect to be subject to sustained wind speeds of 50 mph, with higheer gusts, and as much as 3 inches of rainfall in the coming three days.  Ophelia's maximum sustained winds are now at 65 mph. slow weakening is forecast for the next 24 hrs. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 105 miles from the center.  Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of less than 1 inch over extreme eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 3 to 4 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
September 15, 2005 - 11 PM EDT -   Ophelia, still stagnant and weakening, is now located at 34.5 north 74.8 west or about 65 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  The NHC has shifted the projected path of Ophelia west again, indicating that there is a greater probability that a somewhat weakened Ophelia will strike a portion of New England.. Other models keep Ophila out to sea. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from center, and tropical force winds 140 miles from center. Ophelia's maximum sustained winds are now at 70 mph. slow weakening is forecast for the next 24 hrs. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 140 miles from the center.  Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of less than 1 inche over extreme eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 6 to 8 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 15, 2005 - 8 PM EDT -   Ophelia, now a tropical storm is located at 34.6 north 75.1 west or about 45 miles sout southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. 
September 15, 2005 - 5 PM EDT -   Ophelia, still stagnant and weakening, is now located at 34.8 north 75.6 west or about 60 miles east northeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina.  The NHC has shifted the projected path of Ophelia west again, indicating that there is a greater probability that somewhat weakened Ophelia will strike a portion of New England.. The other models keep Ophila out to sea. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from center, and tropical force winds 140 miles from center. Ophelia's maximum sustained winds are now at 75 mph. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina today. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 140 miles from the center.  Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of 2 inches over extreme eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 6 to 8 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
September 15, 2005 - 2 PM EDT -   Ophelia stalls again. It is now located at 34.7 north 75.7 west or about 55 miles east northeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina. 
September 15, 2005 - 11 AM EDT -   Ophelia is now located at 34.8 north 75.7 west or about 55 miles east northeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina.  The NHC has shifted the projected path of Ophelia west again, indicating that there is a greater probability that somewhat weakened Ophelia will strike a portion of New England.. The other models keep Ophila out to sea. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from center, and tropical force winds 140 miles from center. Ophelia's maximum sustained winds are now at 80 mph. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina today. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 140 miles from the center.  Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over extreme eastern North Carolina with possible isolated maximum total rainfall amounts of 15 inches.  Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 6 to 8 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 15, 2005 - 5 AM EDT -   Ophelia is now located at 34.7 north 76.1 west or about 30 miles east northeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina.  Computer model guidance is coming into greater agreement that Ophelia will pass over or near Cape Cod. The other models keep Ophila out to sea. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from center, and tropical force winds 140 miles from center Ophelia's winds are now at 85 mph. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina today. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 140 miles from the center.  Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over extreme eastern North Carolina with possible isolated maximum total rainfall amounts of 15 inches.  Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 8 to 10 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 14, 2005 - 11 PM EDT -   Ophelia is now located at 34.3 north 76.5 west or about 20 miles south souteast of Cape Lookout North Carolina.  Computer model guidance is coming into greater agreement that Ophelia will pass over or near Cape Cod. As much as four inches of rain may fall from Delaware to Maine in association with Ophelia and a front approaching from the west.  Hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from center, and tropical force winds 140 miles from center Ophelia's winds are now at 85 mph, Ophelia is still getting better organized and some strengthening is still possible. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina today. Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 140 miles from the center.  Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over eastern North Carolina with possible isolated maximum total rainfall amounts of 15 inches.  Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 9 to 11 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 14, 2005 - 7 PM EDT  update - The center of Ophelia is forecast to male landfall on Thursday near Cape Look Out North Carolina.  Ophelia is now located at 34.2 north 76.9 west or about 35 miles southwest of Cape Lookout North Carolina.  The center of Ophelia is expected to pass over Cape Lookout within the next several hours.

September 14, 2005 - 5 PM EDT -The center of Ophelia is forecast to male landfall on thursday near Cape Look Out North Carolina.  Ophelia is now located at 34.1 north 77.2 west or about 50 miles southwest of Cape Lookout North Carolina and about 40 miles east of Wilmington North Carolina. Computer model guidance still again in disagreement about where Ophelia will go. Three models are now predicting another stall over the outer banks in 36 -48 hrs. and then take Ophelia over or near Cape Cod. The other models keep Ophila out to sea. Hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from center, and tropical force winds 140 miles from center Ophelia's winds are have increased at 80 mph, Ophelia is still getting better organized and some strengthening is still possible. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina today. Ophelia's strongest winds extend up to 60 miles from the center.  Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15 inches over eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 9 to 11 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 14, 2005 - 11 AM EDT -Where is Ophelia going? Now it is located at 33.7 north 77.6 west or about 85 miles southwest of Cape Lookout North Carolina and about 40 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina. Computer model guidance is again in disagrement. Three models are now predicting another stall over the outer banks in 36 -48 hrs. and then taking Ophelia over or near Cape Cod. The other models keep Ophila out to sea. Hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from center, and tropical force winds 140 miles from center Ophelia's winds are have increaded at 80 mph, Ophelia is still getting better organized and some strengthening is still possible. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina today. Ophelia's strongest winds extend up to 60 miles from the center.  Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15 inches over eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 9 to 11 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 14, 2005 8 AM -update September 14, 2005 - 8 AM EDT - Once again Ophelia is stationary.  Now it is located at 33.4 north 77.8 west about 60 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina, and 110 southwest of Cape Look Out, North Carolina.  Heavy rainfalls are expected to extend from the Carolinas through New England the next few days as a result of the interaction of Ophelia with the front now approaching from the west. Rainfall amounts may exceed 3 inches in portions of New York and New England.

September 14, 2005 - 5 AM EDT - Once again Ophelia is stationary.  Now it is located at 33.2 north 77.9 west or about 125 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 70 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina.  Hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from center, and tropical force winds 140 miles from center Ophelia's winds are still at 70 mph, Ophelia is getting better organized and some strengthening is still possible. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina today. Ophelia's strongest winds extend up to 60 miles from the center.  Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15 inches over eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 8 to 10 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 14, 2005 - 2 AM EDT Update- Ophelia slowly moving.  Hurricane force winds are now 30 miles from shore. Ophelia is now located at 32.8 north 77.9 west or about 125 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 100 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina.  Hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from center, and tropical force winds 140 miles from center Ophelia's winds are still at 70 mph, Ophelia is getting better organized and some strengthening is expected. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina later today and tonight.

September 13, 2005 - 11 PM EDT - Once again Ophelia is stationary.  Now it is located at 32.6 north 78.1 west or about 110 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 110 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina.  Hurricane force winds extend 50 miles from center, and tropical force winds 140 miles from center Ophelia's winds are still at 70 mph, Ophelia is getting better organized and some strengthening is expected. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina later today and tonight. Ophelia's strongest winds extend up to 60 miles from the center. Models are in agreement about the direction Ophelia should take once its turn is completed.  The question at this time for states to the north is will Ophelia turn as forecast.  If it does coastal areas through Maine will likely see some effects from Ophelia with wind speeds reaching 40 mph on the southwest tip of Maryland to 20 mph in areas adjacent to coastal Maine. Ophelia is expected to produce additional  rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15 inches over eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 8 to 10 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 13, 2005 - 8 PM EDT Update - Ophelia is now a category 1 hurricane. Ophelia is located at 32.7 north 78.2 west or about 105 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 110 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina.  Ophelia's winds are now at 75 mph.

September 13, 2005 - 5 PM EDT - Ophelia is about to begin moving.  Now it is located at 32.6 north 78.1 west or about 110 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 110 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina.  Ophelia's winds are still at 70 mph, but Ophelia is getting better organized and some strengthening is expected. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina later today and tonight. Ophelia's strongest winds extend up to 60 miles from the center. Models are in agreement about the direction Ophelia should take once its turn is completed.  The question at this time for states to the north is will Ophelia turn as forecast.  If it does coastal areas from through Maine will likely see some effects from Ophelia with wind speeds reaching 40 mph on the soutwest tip of Maryland to 20 mph in areas adjucent to coastal Maine. Expect Ophelia to be near Cape in 25 -30 hrs, followed by passage across extreme eastern North Carolina into the Atlantic. Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15 inches over eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 7 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 13, 2005 - 11 AM EDT - Ophelia is about to begin moving.  Now it is located at 32.3 north 78.0 west or about 120 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 130 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina.  Ophelia's winds are still at 70 mph, but Ophelia is getting better organized and some strengthening is expected. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina later today and tonight. Ophelia's strongest winds extend up to 60 miles from the center. The forecast models are beginning to coming into agreement. Expect Ophelia to be near Cape in 30 -36 hrs, followed by passage across extreme eastern North Carolina into the Atlantic. Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15 inches over eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 7 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 13, 2005 update - 8 AM EDT - Ophelia is now stationary at 32.2 north 77.8 west or about 140 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 145 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina.  Ophelia's winds are still at 70 mph.  Ophelia's winds are still at 70 mph, and the strongest winds extend up to 60 miles from the center. Some of the models are forecasting some strengthening before landfall.  Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15 inches over eastern North Carolina.  Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 7 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 13, 2005 update - 2 AM EDT - Ophelia is now stationary at 31.9 north 77.9 west or about 140 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 205 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Ophelia's winds are still at 70 mph,

September 12, 2005 - 11 PM EDT - Ophelia is now at 31.8 north 77.9 west or about 140 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 210 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Most models predict a gradual turn the north in the next 24 hrs.  Ophelia's winds are still at 70 mph, and the strongest winds extend up to 60 miles from the center. Some of the models are forecasting some strengthening before landfall.  Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with local amounts up to 8 inches across eastern portions of North Carolina and the northern coast of South Carolina over the next 2 days. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 7 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 12, 2005 - update 8 PM EDT - Ophelia is now at 31.9 north 77.6 west or about 160 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 260 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Winds are still at 70 mph.

September 12, 2005 5 PM EDT - Ophelia is now at 31.8 north 77.4 west or about 165 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 260 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Winds are now at 70 mph. The NHC is indicating that some slight strengthening is possible tomorrow. Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with local amounts up to 8 inches across eastern portions of North Carolina and the northern coast of South Carolina over the next 2 days. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 7 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

September 12, 2005 2PM EDT - update Ophelia is now at 31.8 north 77.3 west or about 175 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 255 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Winds are now at 70 mph.

September 12, 2005 - Ophelia is is now a tropical depression moving toward the northwest.  At 11 AM EDT the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.6 north  longitude 76.8 west or about 205 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 260 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Maximum sustained winds are around 60 miles per hour.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.  The computer models are still not in agreement about Ophelia's future direction.  There is a possibility that it could linger off the coast for another five days.

September 12, 2005 - Ophelia is stationary. At 8 AM EDT the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.4 north longitude 76.8 west or about 215 miles east southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 275 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Maximum sustained winds are around 75 miles per hour.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.

September 12, 2005 - At 2 AM EDT the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.2 north...longitude 76.6 west or about 210 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 270 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Maximum sustained winds are around 75 miles per hour.  Ophelia is slowly moving west at around 5 mile per hour.  A gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected later today.

September 11, 2005 11 PM EDT  Update: At 11 PM the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near 31.1N 76.4W Ophelia appears to be moving west southwest.  It is still to early to project a landfall. No change in intensity has been recently detected.

September 11, 2005 PM Update The NHC has issued a warning for the nothern third of the South Carolina coast and the southern half of the Coast of North Carolina. The computer models are not in agreement at this time. One model takes Ophelia to the coast of South Carolina and others keep Ophelia of the coast on northern tracks.   The graphic displaying the projected path toward Cape Look Out is a split between the various computer generated tracks.  The good news in the forecasts is that the probability of strengthing is relatively low.  The mean forecast wind speed is stable at 75 mile per hour for the next 36 hours. 
 
September 11, 2005 Ophelia remains relatively stationary.  The intensity of the Hurricane is slightly higher and the southern boundary of the watch zone has shifted slightly to the north.  It is expected that the northern edge of the watch zone will also be shifted slightly to the north today.   Ophelia is still expected to remain relatively stationary for the next few days.
 
September 10, 2005  Midnight Update -- The computer models have changed again.  The models now show Ophelia sitting roughly stationary for the next three days, with little change in intensity forecast.

September 10, 2005 PM Update -- Ophelia is now a hurricane, again. The latest computer simulations all now show Ophelia headed toward the far corner of southeast coast of North Carolina within the next 36 hours.  The current warning area covers all of South Carolina to about midway up the North Carolina coast.  Ophelia is still moving towards the northeast so the exact point of landfall is still very uncertain.  At landfall Ophelia is expected to be a category one hurricane. However the NHC is projecting that there is a 32% probability that it could be greater then category one status.
 
September 10, 2005 - There is still confusion about what Ophelia is going to do.  At the present time Ophelia is now a tropical storm, but is expected to strength back to hurricane status and stop its slow movement to the northeast in about 12 hours.  Ophelia is then expected to head towards the coast , at which point in time the questions are how strong, how fast, and where?  The computer models don't  agree on anything except the where, and that where is  towards the west.  The NOAA forecast for Ophelia's strength is 85 knots, which is on the high side of the uncertainty.

September 9, noon update - Ophelia has the the characteristics of a Hurricane, except the wind speed, which is how hurricanes are defined.  The NHC is now projecting that Ophelia will make landfall as hurricane in four or five days on the Georgia or South Carolina coast.  The probable strength at landfall is as a category one hurricane, but don't put much faith into any of these estimations at this point.  For now, Ophelia is headed towards the north east , but moving very slowly and as a result the existing warnings have been canceled. 

September 9, 2005 Ophelia reverted to tropical storm status early this morning.  It is expected to regain its status at a hurricane.  The NHC is projecting that Ophelia could move in any direction.  It is representing Ophelia at the center of  a circle  that  represents the direction of its probable movement and  not showing any probable movement. The NHC guidance modals are not in agreement. One is predicting that Ophelia will become a major hurricane in 36 hours.
September 8, 2005 Ophelia strengthened to hurricane status today while meandering of the coast of Florida.
September 7, 2005 Currently Ophelia is expected to slowly move northward off Florida's coast.  There is a great uncertainty about where Ophelia is ultimately destined to go.  In its last update the NHC moved Ophelia closer to the center of the circle that defines its probable movement.  As it meanders off the coast some intensification is expected, but any strengthening is expected to be slow. The NHC is predicting that Ophelia will reach hurricane status by Saturday, but is doing making this prediction with the lowest probability that it will do so.

September 6, 2005 Currently called Tropical Depression number 16, Ophelia appears destined to hit Florida.  Should it do so it is likely only to be a category one hurricane, which is to say bad, but no where near as bad as the catestrophic Hurricane Katrina.  At this point it is too soon to know and the longer that Ophila stays out at sea the more likely it is to be a major storm when it finally does hit land.  In the graph above the circle represents the NHC prediction of Ophila's probable path. As you can see its a circle with the storm at one end, so there is a lot of uncertainty about where this storm is actually headed. The last thing that anyone wants to see is Ophila emerging into the Gulf of Mexico.
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