2. Local Governments and Sheriff's Offices
3. Local EM
4. Evacuation and Evacuees
12. Satellite and Radar
14. Health Affects
15. Damage Assessment
16. Discussion Board: questions, suggestions, and reports.
image at right is linked to an animation of water vapor in the Gulf of
October 4, 2005 The National Hurricane center reports that overnight many unexpected things happened with Stan. Stan underwent explosive development and traveled faster than forecast. The net result of these developments is that Stan is going to be making landfall within a few hours, or about a day earlier than forecast yesterday as a category 1 hurricane. At landfall Stan is expected to have maximum sustained winds of 80 mph which will extend up to 15 miles from the center, with tropical force winds extending up to 105 miles from the center. Stan is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible. A coastal storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible.
October 3, 2005 9 PM update. The NHC is now seeing some weakness that is not being reflected in their official forecast. The forecast path remains unchanged.
October 3, 2005 Noon EDT update The National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Stan has shifted southward, and its projected strength at landfall has moved upward, with a forecast that Stan will approach category 2 strength at landfall. The center of Stan is now forecast to reach landfall Wednesday morning at around 7 AM.
October 3, 2005 At the present time Stan has just completed its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is becoming more uncertain about Stan's forecast. The key to the strength of Stan is related to how long it is going to take to cross the Bay of Campeche. The longer that Stan is in the bay the stronger a hurricane it will become. While the official forecast hasn't changed the NHC is now starting to hedge its forecast.
October 2, 2005 PM update The computer models of Stan's future track have moved into greater agreement. Stan is forecast to slow down, its forward movement, and then strengthen as it moves east after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. The center of a category one Hurricane Stan is now forecast to make landfall late Tuesday evening
October 2, 2005 Tropical Storm Stan is now crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, and is expected to spend the next 24 hrs. crossing the Peninsula. Thereafter the computer model results are diverse. However, Stan is expected to cross the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall Wednesday morning at about 20 degrees north latitude as Hurricane Stan.
October 1, 2005 Another tropical depression has formed, this time in the Caribbean. At this point I don't know which of the two storms will end up being named Stan. The new tropical depression, number 20, appears to be headed for northwest Mexico, but first it will have to cross the Yucatan Peninsula. Both these storms will be given a one of the names designated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Of the two the one most likely to acheive hurricane status is tropical depression 20.
September 30, 2005 - A tropical depression formed today that will most likely be named Stan..
September 29, 2005 - A tropical depression which will be assigned the designation 19 is expected to form in the Caribbean within the next two days.
September 28, 2005 - Tropical Depression 19 is most likely to emerge in the Caribbean Sea although Gulf of Mexico, and the Sargasso Sea are also possibilities. Because of a weakness between two ridges any development in the next seven days is likely to move northward.