The problem now in China is severe because the systems in place to respond
to disease are at a breaking point. There are not enough hospital
beds for those affected with the disease so isolation of the affected is
probably not practical.
The rate of increace in the spread of the disease in Hong Kong, Singapore and Canada is now averaging about 1.4% of the previous days total for the last ten days. The most recent data is much lower. The problems now is in China, and the disease is making inroads into other third world nations.
The difference between a rate of increase of 1.4% and 5% over the previous days total is 200,000 cases vs. 4,000,000,000 cases by January 27, 2003.
This projection is based on the discovery of 1.4% new cases of SARS every day. This rate corresponds to the rate of new cases in Singapore, Hong Kong and Canada, in the last ten days. This approximates our old estimate which was based on a 40% increase in the total number of reported cases every two weeks. We should consider this rate of the spread of the disease as the minimum. As the disease spreads the resources available to fight the spread will become thinner. Equipment and supplies needed to issolate the infected will eventually become stretched to the breaking point. At that point the personal hygine habits of an individual and the individuals around the person will be the determining factor of infection. Our worst case scenerio is an increase in the number of people infected at a rate of 5% per day.
It doesn't make much sense to carry this scenario out much beyond the
This is the present rate for the spread of the disease. This rate has been fairly consistent since figures became available from March 17, 2003. The difference between these two curves show us why we must do everything that we can to slow down the spread of the disease.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Projected Cases
SARS - FAQ
The Disaster Center's Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Page